sexta-feira, 6 de janeiro de 2017

Fwd: Chaos

Dear Mome Mariana, the Unique, Queen of the Whole World,

Today, I will explain you what I think is the scientific conception of chaos. I has everything to do with chaos theory, which is a subset of Mathematics, but I'm not really into Maths. If you are into it, you may refer to the this Wikipedia article. What I will be explaining to you is chaos beyond Maths. My main source of knowledge on this subject is a book called Caos: a criação de uma nova ciência, by James Gleick (that book has not a lot of Maths, as well).

A simple concept within the chaos theory  is "highly sensitivity to initial conditions", which is popularly known as butterfly effect. When there is a lot of small elements interacting with each other by a limited set of rules, starting to a certain level of energy, the system goes to a pattern impossible to preview without complete and overly detailed knowledge of all the littlest bits of the initial situation. Lorentz discovered that while working on a deterministic meteorological model; after running a program  which produced a graph for some time, he tried to reproduce the graph starting in the middle. He however rounded the values to the 4th. or 5th. digit after the point, and get a entirely different result.

You may think that it was just a model, but we are living in a real system with that feature. Think about the weather. Meteorologists have a lot of information on how weather phenomena work and about what is the present situation. However, they will fail because there is never enough data. There are differences in the temperature from places a mere one meter apart. Notice the wind and you will perceive that it will blow to every direction, while what we call its direction is the prevailing, not the only one.

Another concept within the chaos theory is fractals. The idea about fractals is that given a set of simple rules to construct a graph and repeating them you may get a figure with the same level of complexity in the whole as well as in the small parts. Consider the coast of Brazil. If you are flying from the space you will see it as many curves within a curve. If you approach one of such small curves, you will notice that that will also contain curves within. When you approach such small curves, you will get the same result.

Imagine you now get to a beach and try to represent it with an accuracy of one meter. You start drawing and soon perceive that the as you draw a line representing the limit between sea and land, the sea flows and covers what you were considering the land, and soon what you considered be sea is not covered in water anymore. To solve this problem you will create rule to define where the beach ends, but that will not change the reality, which is that is no clear and fixed limit between land and sea.

And that brings us to the one the concepts approached in the book I read and which I usually take into account, with I call the crumbs. If you weigh a loaf of bread, part it and weigh each of the parts, the sum of them will not equals the weight of the original whole. This is because of the crumbs that were lost. This kind of thing happens everywhere. A chromosome is copied and lose a small bit – there are mechanisms to correct it, but the copy will never be the same as the original. (Sometimes there is nowhere to get an appropriate peace of DNA to substitute the lost bit, which is why chromosome Y is to smaller than the others). We both pronounce the same word and it will not sound exactly the same. This is one the difficulties in learning the pronunciation of a new language, as its fluent speaker may distinguish sounds which in our language are perceived as the same. Our eyes are not equal, which is why we will never be sure if the the red I see is the same as the red you see (while the "red" I say probably is not the "red" you imagine). We may not sense the crumbs, but they will not go away. I you cut a lot of bread, it will accumulate. The repeated variant of pronunciation of phoneme may arise as new one.

Some later day, I will share with you my thoughts on how chaos affect phenomena in social and historic sciences.

My friend, my messages will not go personal for a couple of days, for I am experiencing some relationship problems.

With all may laugh,

--   –><–  Rev. Alexandre dell'A r Appia, Amordi, IIPJ, Oraculo de Glícão  According to Arkansas law, Section 4761, Pope's Digest:  "No person  shall be permitted under any pretext whatever, to come nearer than  fifty feet of any door or window of any polling room, from the opening  of the polls until the completion of the count and the certification of  the returns."  Today is Setting Orange, the 14th day    of Confusion in the YOLD 3180.   	

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